In the conservative scenario of the macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia’s GDP will be 30.5 trillion rubles. less in five years – from 2020 to 2024.
This follows from the materials of the department for macro forecasts, which were at the disposal of RBC. Officially, they have not yet been published.
Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin presented the basic version of the updated forecast on August 26. The minister did not set out a conservative scenario.
The conservative scenario assumes that GDP in 2020 will grow by only 1.1%, in 2021 – by 1.9%, while in the baseline scenario in 2021, Russia reaches target economic growth rates above 3%.
Oil below $ 50
In a conservative scenario, the Russian budget since 2020 remains without oil excess profits. The average price of Russian Urals oil until 2024 is set at the level that coincides with the budget cut-off price for excess revenues (from $ 42.5 per barrel in 2020 to $ 45.9 in 2024).
According to the budget rule, the Ministry of Finance buys currency for additional oil revenues to replenish reserve funds. Additional revenues from the sale of oil are considered to be more expensive than $ 40 per barrel in 2017 prices (with an annual indexation of 2%).
For comparison: the basic version of the forecast provides for relatively low, but still not so low oil prices: from $ 53 to $ 57 per barrel for five years.
Gas will fall in price
A conservative forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development also implies a strong drop in export prices for Russian gas.
The average contract prices for Russian pipeline gas, including supplies to the CIS, are conservatively forecast at $ 149.6 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2020, with a subsequent increase to only $ 155.2 by 2024.
For comparison: in the basic version, 1 thousand cubic meters of Russian gas will cost $ 183.7 in 2020, and by 2024 it will fall in price to $ 174.1.
At the level of dollar exports of Russian gas in 2024, the difference between the base and conservative forecasts is estimated at $ 5.7 billion – $ 43.6 billion in annual exports in the base case versus $ 37.9 billion in the conservative one.