Gazprom PJSC’s 2022 budget took a typically prudent view of gas prices, despite record-high energy costs in its main export market and few signals Europe’s energy crunch is abating.
The Russian gas producer is basing its 2022 budget on what it calls a “conservative” export price of $296 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to a company presentation made to investors on Wednesday.
Gazprom has traditionally been cautious in its budget estimates, saying this helps mitigate the impact of volatile prices. In its budget for 2021, the company made a similarly reserved call on export prices, of $250/1,000 cm, that didn’t materialize. The gas producer’s average 2021 export price is actually much higher, at over $280/1,000 cm, according to Deputy Chief Executive Famil Sadygov.
Gazprom’s conservative 2022 budget comes as Europe, its main export market, buckles under a supply crunch that’s pushed benchmark gas contracts to break record after record in recent months. Constrained supplies from Russia mean the continent has to rely on its depleted storage sites, as nuclear outages throughout the continent mean more gas is needed to generate electricity. The outlook for Europe’s gas supply doesn’t look much better next year either.
The company sees an export price of $296/1,000 cm for all its foreign markets next year, including Europe, Turkey and China as well as former Soviet Union nations, according to the presentation seen by Bloomberg News. Gazprom’s 2022 budget envisions total exports of 227 billion cm, about 2% above the level the 2021 budget is based on.
The presentation doesn’t provide a regional breakdown for 2022 export-estimates, however, one explanation could be the fact that Gazprom is obligated to ramp-up gas flows via the Power of Siberia link next year under its long-term contract with China.
Despite Gazprom’s caution on export-price estimates, the company still expects to report record earnings for this year and 2022 because of Europe’s gas crunch and the price rally that’s followed.
“The price situation combined with our thoroughly elaborated supply policies have made this year one of the most successful for Gazprom Group,” Sadygov told the company’s in-house publication in an interview published on Tuesday.
