Transport is the main consumer of oil now. In 1973 this sector burnt 45.4% of extracted oil and in 2012 its share already constituted 63.7%. Electric energy is the secondary market for oil and therefore, spreading of the renewable energy is not a significant threat for the oil markets. The oilmen have problems from the other sides.
Optimistic forecasts of the future oil consumption released by the Oil Exporting Unions, the International Energy Agency and analysts of the oil companies are based on actually only key hypothesis: welfare of Chinese and Indian citizens will grow, which means they will buy cars and the world oil industry will get hundreds of millions of new customers.
Analysts of the the oil giant Exxon believe that from 2010 till 2040 oil products consumption in the transport sector of 32 countries will go down by 10%. In the rest of the world consumption must dpouble. During this period more than half of the world market growth will be ensured by China and India together.
However, there are other viewpoints and other tendencies as well. “We, mankind, will definitely replace oil in the ground transport by electricity and fuel elements. The question is if this will take 20 or 40 years,” said Jeremy Grantam, one of the biggest investment managers in the world. “We already witness electric cars and fuel cells cars starting seriously ousting combustion engine.
Is the mankind’s passion for electric car is serious? In 2013-2014 electric car has become the product of mass demand. By September 2014 over 600,000 electric cars, including plug-in hybrids have been sold in the world. By the end of the year their number has already reached 740,000.
According to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2020 electric cars will occupy 2% share of the world car park, which is 20 million units. The Centre for Automobile Transport Studies in the Gelzenkirhen Institute in Germany believes that by 2025 Europe will sell exceptionally electric cars and cars with hybrid engines. By 2030 Sweden plans to ensure 100% transition to automobile transport to the non-carbon types of fuel, which are electric cars and cars running on bio diesel.
In 2015 China plans to increase number of electric cars up to 500,000 and 5 million by 2020. There are about 150 million cars with electric engine on the roads in China.
According to the latest statistics and forecasts, the plans concerning the Chinese market may fail to come true to life and demand for oil in China is not going to grow actively and for a long period.
The alternative technologies accumulating power and bringing electric engines into motion are under development. Sports sedan Quant, which can gather speed over 100 miles during 2.8 seconds thanks to the electric engine with the 920 horse power, is already on the roads of Europe. Even Ferrari cars cannot dream about such indexes. Not oil, but salty water ensure such power and dynamics and the electric engine runs on flow batteries, reported Lenta.ru.
