Yesterday World Bank released another report about the Russian economy. Unlike the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance, WB does not see the grounds for resumption of growth till at least the end of 2016.
WB report reads that structural slowing down of the Russian economy started in 2012. Since the end of the 1990s till 2013 investments into Russia grew slower, than in other world economies: since the 2000s the pace of growth was behind the remaining countries and especially other countries rich in natural resources. The growth of total economic productivity has slowed down since 2007. Weak ruble allowed avoiding decline of GDP in 2014.
None of three scenarios considered in the WB report envisages any changes of geopolitics able to significantly affect efficiency of distribution of the factors of production. The sanctions will continue oppressing the consumer and business sentiments, which will delay restoration of the local demand. Unlike the Russian Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Finance, the WB basic scenario does not expect economic growth of Russia in 2015 and 2016. In the near future there are no conditions for growth of private investments, especially foreign ones. The potential of the budget limited, because the amount of the Reserve Fund makes half of the level of 2008-2009 (in interest of GDP). “The expected budget gap of 3.8% of GDP in 2015 will help to significantly exhaust the Reserve Fund (4.7% of GDP), “ reads the WB report.
The WB basic scenario expects growth of poverty level from 10.8% in 2013 to 14% in 2015 and up to 14.1% in 2016.
