In the long-term world natural gas consumption will increase by 1.9% a year and reach 13.9 billion cub.m. a day by 2035, reads the BP forecast devoted to the situation at the market by 2035. This research is considered among the most authoritative in the world.
80% of total gas consumption will fall to the energy and industrial sectors of economy.
The forecast reads that about half of growth of world gas supply falls to gas extracted in Russia and Near East.
The technically extractive US resources are estimated at 340 billion barrels of shale oil and 7.5 trillion cub.m. of shale gas, about 50% of this oil and 30% of gas will be extracted in the US in the coming 20 years. In the coming years growth of shale oil extraction will slow down, but shale gas production will increase by 4.5% a year.
US will remain the biggest maker of shale gas, which ensures now almost all shale gas production and by 2035 their share in production will constitute 75% and 10% of shale gas will be extracted in China.
BP also expects growth of deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 7.8% a year from 2013 to 2020.
Europe’s share in the world LNG import is expected to be increased from 16% to 19% from 2013 to 2035.
The forecast reads that at present about 50% of total volume of gas consumption falls to gas import to Europe. Over 80% of gas is imported via the pipelines, majority of which come from Russia.
“Local gas production will go down by 2% a year in Europe, which means that even with a very insignificant growth of demand (by 0.8% a year), almost three quarters of Europe’s demand in gas will be satisfied at the expense of import by 2035,” reads the forecast.
