Worsening of economic situation in Russia affected less Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan among the CIS member-states, Mariya Malyukova, analyst of Moody’s Investors Service, said at the VII International Bank Conference of the CIS member-states in Baku.
She said in these countries aggregate influence on the export incomes, direct foreign investments and money transfers from Russia constitute less than 5% of GDP.
“Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Armenia and Uzbekistan (total influence more than 10% of GDP) are more vulnerable. Georgia has an average influence between 5 and 10% of GDP,” she said.
Malyukova added that at present the operation environment of the CIS member-states banks is subject to influence of negative factors, such as geopolitical conflict in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, slowing down of the economic growth in Russia and reduction of oil prices.
“As Russia has very close ties with other CIS member-states, worsening of the Russian economy directly affects other CIS member-states,” she added.
She added that gold and currency resources act as a safety cushion in this situation. “Azerbaijan has the best index of gold and currency resources against forthcoming payments of foreign debt, while Ukraine and Belarus have the worst one,” Moody’s analyst added.
In addition, only Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan have a “stable” forecast of the bank sector. Other countries have a “negative” forecast of the bank system.
