“The new chapter in the history of the oil market is beginning,” announced the International Energy Agency (IEA). One should not expect oil prices to return to $100 per barrel soon, the IEA analysts said.
On November 14, 2014 Brent oil price decreased below $77.00 per barrel for the first time in the past four years. Last time oil was so cheap on September 23, 2010. “Economic development does not longer stimulate growth of demand,” explained IEA analysts in the review released on Friday. According to their forecast, I quarter 1, 2014 world demand will reduce by about 1% against the current quarter and total 92.6 million barrels a day.
IEA writes about the structural changes at the energy resources market: China enters the phase of less intensive energy growth and the US is improving the technologies of shale oil production. If the IEA agency’s forecast of demand comes true, then in the near future oil price will not exceed $100 per barrel.
But there is also a more dramatic scenario: JP Morgan Bank has recently reduced its forecast of Brent oil price from $115 to $82.00 in 2015 and to $87.80 per barrel in 2016. In the short term limitation of deliveries by the main exporters could maintain prices. But the bank’s analysts believe that at the next session at the end of November OPEC member-states will fail to find agreement on limitation of production. In this case Brent oil price could drop to $70.00 per barrel in December and down to $65.00 in January 2015.
