S&P expects slowdown in Azerbaijan’s GDP growth with gradual decline in oil prices

The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings predicts the average annual GDP growth in Azerbaijan for 2022-2025 at about 1.7%.

The forecasts published on the agency’s website note that Azerbaijan’s GDP growth in 2022 will be 2.7%, in 2023-2024 – 1.5%, in 2025 – 1%.

The agency predicts the nominal volume of Azerbaijan’s GDP for 2022 at $61 billion, in 2023 – $60 billion, in 2024 – $58 billion, in 2025 – $61 billion.

Azerbaijan’s GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 5.6%.

“In addition, we expect the country’s GDP growth to average just over 1% in 2023-2025, as growth in gas production only partially offsets a gradual decline in the oil sector,” the agency emphasizes.

S&P expects inflation in Azerbaijan in 2022 at 6.5% (in 2021 – 6.7%), in 2023 inflation will slow down to 4.5%, in 2024-2025 – to 3%.

At the same time, S&P predicts that the average price of Brent oil in 2022 will be $75 per barrel, in 2023 – $65 per barrel, in 2024-2025 – $55 per barrel (in 2021 – $71 per barrel).

The Azerbaijani government predicts GDP growth at the level of 3.9% for 2022. In general, according to the estimates of the country’s authorities in 2022-2025, the average annual GDP growth in Azerbaijan will be 4.2%.

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