Colder-than-normal temperatures across Northwest Europe since the middle of January have steadied gas prices and halted the bloat in storage, but the region is still on track for a near-record carryout at the end of winter.
Combined gas inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom were equivalent to 807 terawatt-hours (TWh) on Feb. 1, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Inventories were 261 TWh (+48% or +2.59 standard deviations) above the prior 10-year seasonal average, with the surplus narrowing only slightly from 272 TWh (+45% or +2.63 standard deviations) on Jan. 22.
Stocks are projected to deplete to a post-winter low of 606 TWh (with a range from 468 TWh to 705 TWh), slightly down from a projection of 617 TWh (487-733 TWh) on Jan. 22.
But the projected carryout would still be the second-highest on record after 609 TWh at the end of winter 2019/2020.
Northwest Europe is more than 60% of the way through the heating season so there is increasing visibility about the likely carryout.
