Fitch Expects Azerbaijan’s Economy to Grow, Increase in Karabakh Recovery Spending in 2021

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The international rating agency Fitch Ratings predicts a decline in Azerbaijan’s GDP in 2020 at 4.3%

Earlier in July, Fitch predicted a 4.2% decline in Azerbaijan’s economy this year.

Fitch notes that the decline in GDP in 2020 is due to continued constraints in the economy due to COVID-19, falling oil prices and a reduction in oil production as part of the OPEC+ deal.

According to the agency’s forecasts, Azerbaijan’s GDP growth in 2021 will amount to 2.7% (July forecast – 2.5%), in 2022 – 2% (July forecast – 2.8%).

By the end of 2020, Fitch expects Azerbaijan’s external assets to amount to $ 49.8 billion, compared with $ 50.4 billion at the end of 2019.

According to Fitch estimates, in 2021-2022, capital expenditures for post-conflict reconstruction in Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions will increase by 0.6 % of GDP.

Fitch expects the average price of Brent crude this year at $ 40 per barrel, $ 45 in 2021 and $ 50 per barrel in 2022.

In January-October 2020, the decline in Azerbaijan’s GDP amounted to 3.8%.


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