Russian Energy Ministry has a stress scenario for Russia’s energy strategy till 2035, according to the presentation of Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak made at the governmental comission on fuel-energy sector on February 17.
The stress scenario envisages that oil price will be $31.00-33.00 per barrel in 2016-2017 and by 2020 it will go up to $42.00 per barrel. Oil production could go down to 460 million tons a year by 2020-2025 with further insignificant growth by 14% by 2015.
After 2020 “acute crisis of underfinancing of development of world oil and gas industry” will become obvious, as a result of which oil prices will start growing first and then natural gas prices after 2025. Oil price could exceed $100 per barrel no earlier than 2035.
In the stress scenario oil industry will not reach the indexes of the energy strategy. The target variant of the document (rise in prices up to $65.00-75.00 per barrel this year with further slow growth up to $100 per barrel by 2035) envisages that production will stay stable till 2035 – 525 million tons and will increase with good conjuncture. The conservative option envisages ($55.00 per barrel in 2015 with the growth up to $80.00 per barrel by 2020 and up to $95.00-105 per barrel by 2030) and decline to 476 million tons (it is supposed that by 2020 Urals will go back to $80.00 per barrel).
