Strengthening of Bashar Asad may be advantageous for Russia from the point of view of competition in the gas market of Europe. Namely Syria is the most optimal route for supplies to Turkey, and then to Europe from Qatar, which is one of the biggest supplier to the markets of EU.
Qatar supplies about 77 mln tons of liquefied natural gas which is equivalent to somewhere about 106 billion cubic meters. Almost one third of it goes to Europe.
“Syria-one of the few centers of tension, inhibits the formation of geographically correct and cheaper ways to deliver Qatari gas to Europe”, – according to the head of analytical department “Golden Hills-Capital АМ” Mikhail Krilov.
Expert points that Qatar has one of the biggest stores of gas in the world (about 25 trillion cubic meters of gas). In the case of laying a straight pipeline to Turkey the length of the route will be only 1800 km. For comparison, the length of a valid Russian gas pipeline “Northern Stream”, wherein gas goes to Germany through Baltic Sea – 1224 km, but it’s without counting the transportation of gas from Siberia.
By the way, participating of Turkey on supplying from Qatar isn’t necessary. Krilov believes that gas pipeline may be laid until the Syrian coast, and then they can work on supplying opportunity to Greece. The only barrier for straight supplies of Qatari gas to Europe- it’s actually an independency of a raw of the foreign policy process (including terrorists and Bashar Asad) from USA and NATO.
“If Asad will be thrown, Qatar can build a gas pipeline through Turkey to Europe, where they will push Gazprom”- warns expert.
In recent years Gazprom supplies 25-30 percent of European market. Qatari percentage, according to Krilov , is about 4 times less, but can grow up with providing the construction of pipe. Also Gazprom’s export is reducing: according to the results of the first half of the year 2015 it’s less than the last year’s number in the same period by 8 percent and made 74,275 billion cubic meters.
Expert of the National Fund of Energy Security, political scientist Igor Yushkov thinks that the constructing of the gas pipeline from Qatar is irrelevant at the moment.
At first, big role played reducing the gas price, which followed by the collapsed oil. At second, according to Yushkov, a valid terroristic organization İSİS turned into a lot more independent from its “sponsors” than, for example, “Muslim-Brothers”, which with the support of Qatar contributed to the change of power in Egypt and Libya.
It means that even in the case of overthrow of Asad instability in the region will still persist. Also, in the gas market a new opponent appeared for Qatar-Iran, which after sanctions been removed can start supplies to European Union as well. And reserves of Iran, according to BP, are the biggest in the world- about 34 trillion cubic meters (17-18 percent of world reserves).
Discussing the supplies of Iranian gas to Europe has been already started, which they are really interested in this, in the first case, because it will decrease the dependency from Russia. In mid-October The Wall Street Journal citing sources reported that the biggest European energy companies (German RWE AG and E.ON, French Total and Engie, British BP, British-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell, Norwegian Statoil and Spanish Repsol) are planning to invest Iranian gas sector, counting on outstrip in this respect America and China.
Gazeta.ru
