The World Bank has published its long-term Commodity Markets Outlook. WB believes that within the next ten years natural gas prices in the EU will reduce to the level of the U.S. prices, while the Japanese market will remain the most expensive in the world.
According to WB, in 2015 nominal gas prices in Europe will not exceed $7.6 per 1 mmbtu, in 2016 – $7.73.
In the U.S. prices will reach $2.8 and $3.02 respectively and in Japan – $10.5 and $10.64. In 2017 and 2018 prices at the European market will be at the level of $7.86 and $8 respectively, at the American market – $3.26 and $3.52, and in Japan – $10.78 and $10.93. In 2019 and 2020 prices will reach $8.27 and $9 in Europe, $3.8 and $4.1 in the U.S., $11.08 and $11.22 in Japan.
In 2025 WB expects prices to reach the level of $9 in the EU, $6 in the U.S. and $12 in Japan.
As a result it’s obvious that the EU will never reach its target on price reduction to the U.S. level, while Japan will remain to be the most attractive country for producers.
