After 2019 Gasprom is going to suspend Ukrainian transit and export gas to the European buyers through the Turkish Stream. What do the European experts think about that? Gasprom’s verdict to the Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe is not the subject to appeal. This is the message that Russia sent to the European Commission last week.
For the EU to hear this signal better, Russia sent a message in Berlin at the session of Valdai Discussion Club.
At first, Ukrainian transit has lost its previous role. Only 14% of gas consumed in EC is delivered via this route. In 2014 59 billion cub.m. was pumped via Ukraine and in 2005 – 121 billion.
“The European gas transportation system is able to cope with temporary stoppage of the Ukrainian transit,” said Harald Hecking from the Cologne-based Institute for Study of Energy Economy.
Secondly, Gasprom has signed contracts for decades with the European concerns. These are confidential documents, but reliable sources claim that the Ukrainian route of gas export is envisaged by the contracts.
If Gasprom tries to change the “point of product shipment” from the western border of Ukraine to the western border of Turkey in the contracts, then the European partners will most likely demand revision of other items of the signed agreements, said analyst Simon Pirani from the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies. And finally, the matter concerns the terms, the guarantees volume of purchase and prices.
Gurkan Kumbaroglu, chairman of Board of the Turkish Association of Economy and Energy, believes that the South Stream project was not commercial, while the Turkish Stream could be one and jointly with other Turkish gas projects it will turn Turkey into an important gas hub.
Turkey will sell gas to the EC taking into consideration the European demands of diversification, filling its export pipes with the gas of various suppliers, from the Caspian Sea, Iran, sanctions against which are expected to be lifted, possibly from Iraq and definitely from Russia. “This means that the hub based on the competitive price will be created in Turkey,” said Kumbaroglu.
The question is if Gasprom is able to endure such a competition. Gasprom is going to pump its gas into the Turkish Stream from Yamal. This is about 6000 km to the Turkish-Greek border. For Azerbaijani gas the distance is three times shorter.
