The western sanctions could deliver a significant blow at the international resources of Russia, warned Moody’s agency.
Fitch agency occupies the similar position: with acceleration of capital outflow support of the ruble will cost more and more to the Central Bank (CB).
According to Fitch’s scenario, this year Russia’s international resources will decline from $472.5 billion (by July 25) to $450 billion, next year – to $400 billion. According to the Central Bank, in 2013 the resources decreased by 5% to $511.6 billion, since early year – by 7.6%.
During 6 months, 2014 outflow of capital totaled $74.6 billion against $61 billion in 2013, according to the CB.
In 2008-2009, when oil prices went down, Russia’s international resources decreased by $215 billion during 6 months, reminded Moody’s. Any additional foreign shock in combination with the sanctions is able to deliver a significant flow at the resources, analysts warn.
By the end of next year Russian corporations will have to refinance a debt worth $96 billion, which is almost half of the entire profit of the corporate sector, $219 billion – till the end of 3018, Moody’s claims. About 60% of debt is in foreign currency. The oil and gas industry has the highest debts – till the end of 2015 the oil and gas companies will have to pay about $43 billion, write the analysts. Then come electric energy ($15.4 billion) and metallurgic industry ($15 billion).
