The West and Russia have switched from the fantastic scenarios to the “information for reflection” one, believes Ilham Shaban, chief of the Centre for Oil Studies.
I think that the first stage of “cold” war between the West and Russia, which included the threats that the US could replace the Russian gas at the European market and by reducing oil price by to almost $30.00 it can collapse Russia are behind. Mass media publishes more serious articles with less aggressive statements. This shows the transition from the fantastic scenarios to the “information for reflection” one, Shaban concluded.
He said one can expect more realistic scenarios later, though none of the brain centres of the world will dare to predict the development of events.
“We have only guesses now, because position of one big player, even at a regional level, may change the entire situation,” Shaban said.
Speaking about the relationships between Europe and Russia, Shaban mentioned that they established cooperation in 1968, when the USSR and Austria signed the first contract for delivery of 1.7 billion cub.m. of gas a year. Since 1970 the Soviet Union started transportation of gas to the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG). After the USSR invasion into Afghanistan in 1979 Moscow and Munich signed a new agreement in November 1980, which envisaged export of 10.5 billion cub.m. of natural gas a year from the USSR to FRG during 25 years beginning since 1984.
The agreement has been signed within the framework of the deal “gas – pipes”, which envisaged delivery of gas from the Western Siberia and construction of 4,500-km-long export gas pipeline Urengoy-Uzhgorod. The similar agreements for delivery of natural gas have been signed with France, Italy, Austria and Switzerland.
“I would like emphasize the fact that during the peak of the “cold war” Soviet gas advanced to the foreign markets and by 1981 export of natural gas reached 60 billion cub.m., increased by 35 times since 1968. Today Russia remains one of the biggest gas suppliers to the EU. In 2013 export of Russian gas to Europe totaled 139.32 billion cub.m., up 23.9% against 2012. I do not think that Russia could be ousted from the European market using just sanctions or deliveries of the US liquefied natural gas (LNG),” Shaban said.
Ilham Shaban believes that share of Russian gas will surely be reduced at the European market and Gasprom’s presence will be limited.
“After 3-4 years competition at the European energy market will, possibly, become more aggressive, than the companies can imagine, but Europe – the biggest energy consuming market of the world – will only benefit from that,” Shaban added.
He said by 2020 the Southern gas corridor will start working and the first gas from the Caspian Sea will be transported to Europe. Efficiency of this infrastructure will create good perspectives for transportation of not only Caspian gas, but also gas from the north of Iraq via it.
“By that time the offshore gas from Cyprus and Israel could also be transported to Europe. Thus, after 5-6 years Gasprom will not be bored at the big gas markets,” the expert concluded.