Gazprom, the biggest supplier of natural gas to Europe, will probably reduce the price it charges its European buyers in a bid to defer competitors such as Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz project, Societe Generale SA said.
Russian gas imports into Europe will continue to grow as the continent’s own production declines, supplies from Norway stay flat through 2015 and Algerian gas imports continue to decline, Thierry Bros, an analyst at Societe Generale in Paris, said in a note dated yesterday. European demand for the fuel will no longer increase after growth next year, assuming normal weather, he said.
“In this no-demand-growth world, Gazprom’s strategy to slightly reduce its prices to delay alternative supply after 2020 makes perfect sense,” Bros said.
Lower prices would make supplies to Europe “less attractive” for Shah Deniz, an Azeri gas project that made a final investment decision for stage two of the development in December, and U.S. liquefied natural gas plants, according to the report. U.K. gas for front-month delivery, a regional benchmark, dropped 19 percent from the start of the year as the mildest winter since 2007 has left storage facilities at record-high levels for the time of year.
“Russia could see the threat of new suppliers/competitors entering the European market after 2020,” Societe Generale said. “Lower European prices could make those projects less attractive.”
Gazprom’s market share in Europe is expected to peak at about 29 percent in 2016 to 2018 after dropping to as low as 22 percent in 2010, according to the report.
The bank lowered its U.K. 2014 gas price forecast 12 percent to 59 pence a therm, and the forecast for 2015 by 8 percent to 62 pence a therm.
