The European Union (EU) has embarked on a new plan to cut off the flow of Russian gas, including LNG, via pipelines to Europe within three years. Following the approval of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen unveiled a detailed plan to end imports of Russian gas to EU countries by 2027.
The document in question states that “Gas trade with the Russian Federation poses significant risks to trade and security, and the EU’s exposure to these risks will be eliminated by introducing a phased ban on natural gas imports.” Accordingly, imports of Russian gas, including LNG, via pipelines will be prohibited as of January 1, 2026. However, countries that have signed short-term contracts before June 17, 2026, may be exempted from this ban by the EU. Another exception is landlocked countries with long-term contracts with Russia. The document also leaves an open door to the possibility that some European companies could continue to import Russian gas under long-term contracts until January 1, 2028.
Although the tolerances granted to such exceptional cases seem to leave an open door for sanctions to be circumvented and potentially weakening the document’s impact, one decision is quite striking. According to the decision, which Politico described as an “unprecedented step,” gas arriving in EU countries via transit states such as Serbia will be considered Russian gas “unless clear evidence is provided that it came from elsewhere”.
This was actually a measure indicated within the scope of the REPowerEU Roadmap announced last month, and it was already stated that companies would be obliged to disclose the origin of their gas imports, but few expected this requirement to be implemented so assertively, catching many observers by surprise. Time will show how successful this attempt to restrict fossil fuel purchases, which are thought to enable the Kremlin to finance the war, will be.
Another question is how the EU will deal with Orban’s Hungary and Fico’s Slovakia, both of whom have already announced that they will veto these harsh measures – both of whom have been labeled ‘pro-Russian’ – because the votes of all 27 member states are required for a new sanction to be imposed. According to the plan announced by Jørgensen, such countries will be given additional time to completely abandon Russian gas, but it is a matter of curiosity how these nations will be compensated for having to switch to potentially much more expensive alternatives.
SERBIA’S ROLE
So how much gas is actually coming out of Serbia?
Serbia imports approximately 2 to 3 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually, and all of this gas comes through the Balkan Stream line. The country, which meets a consumption of around 2.2 billion cubic meters per year with a daily supply of 6.1 million cubic meters, also provides transit to the EU through this line. Approximately 1.8 billion cubic meters of the gas passing through Serbia is transferred to EU countries, primarily Hungary. Thus, Serbia continues to be both a direct consumer of Russian gas and one of the Kremlin’s energy corridors to Europe.
This is precisely the flow referenced in the plan. However, this volume will be very difficult to compensate for.
BEHIND THE RHETORIC
Although frequently criticized by EU elites for their political positions, there are two other important countries that continue to import Russian gas, apart from Hungary and Slovakia: France and the Netherlands. These two countries import considerable amounts of gas from Russia via LNG. According to data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), France increased its Russian LNG imports by 46 percent year-on-year, reaching 7.7 billion cubic meters. The Netherlands increased by 81 percent to 1.7 billion cubic meters. Although demand for Russian LNG is decreasing in Spain and Belgium, it remains high. Despite a 12 percent decrease, Spain still imports 5.7 billion cubic meters of LNG from Russia. Belgium, on the other hand, despite a significant decrease of 21 percent, still imports 5.1 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG. It should be noted that Russia obtains 52 percent of its LNG export revenue from the EU market. The amount the EU paid to Russia in the third year of the war was exactly 8.5 billion dollars. Russia, meanwhile, now exports only 37 percent of its pipeline gas to the EU—after pivoting to Chinese and Indian markets. This shows that the EU leadership is losing sight of the bigger picture while dealing with Hungary and Slovakia, which it considers “friends of Russia”, for political reasons.
In addition, the exception for “companies that have signed long-term contracts” mentioned in the plan will also be an irony of fate, since it includes French and Spanish companies; in fact, French TotalEnergies and Spanish Naturgy have signed Russian LNG contracts that will last until the 2030s.
FOR WHOM?
Now, we can ask this question: Is the EU’s attempt merely a ‘showcase’—a last stand for the so-called ‘rules-based world order’ and also punishment against Eastern European countries that do not follow or share the EU’s agenda or is it a genuine strategy to weaken the Russian economy?
Deniz Yaşayan, International Relations Analyst
Especially for Caspian Barrel
