The oil production on the Kashagan field in Kazakhstan will hardly be resumed in 2015 or 2016, said Oleg Yegorov, senior scientist of the Economy Institute under the Kazakhstan Ministry of Education and Science.
Yegorov reminded that about 200 km of pipes must be replaced on the field. Moreover, the works must be carried out not only onshore, but also on the artificial island built on the field and offshore. This is long-term and complicated works. The works on the offshore section could be carried out during warm time of the year, because the Caspian Sea in the Kashagan field area freezes in winter, he said.
The expert believes that depending on the situation at the world market, the oil production on Kashagan field could not be resumed even in 2017 and will be postponed till later. In particular, if demand in oil is below the supply, then oil prices will remain low during a long period of time, oil production on the Kashagan field could be unprofitable and the field could be closed down temporarily for some time.
Yegorov reminded that a lot of money has been invested into the Kashagan field development. Now the companies need to invest additional $2 billion to replace the pipes. The project shareholders must pay a huge fine for the failure to launch the field in time stipulated by the contract.
Yegorov also said that oil price must be $80.00-90.00 per barrel for profitability of oil extraction on the Kashagan field.
