The International Energy Agency (IEA) has seen the first signs of stabilization at the oil market. For the first time IEA has reduced the growth of oil export from the non-OPEC member-states in 2015. Slowing down of export from the non-OPEC member-states will lead to “change of balance “ at the market in the second half of the year and the prices could go up.
IEA experts claim that the reason of delayed reduction of oil prices is macro-economic difficulties throughout the world, which do not let the countries increase oil consumption, while supply continues growing at the market.
Although the signs of change of balance between the demand and supply were noticeable long ago, “the slump of oil prices came unexpected,” writes IEA in its January report.
The experts believe that slump of oil prices has a systematic character. “It is obvious that the market has been undergoing historical changes. In November 2014 OPEC, which previously regulated prices through management of volume of export, refused to reduce oil production. In quarter 4, 2014 the world oil supply continued growing fast. During this period the demand increased by 0.39% against previous quarter and by 0.62% during a year, then supply increased by 0.6% and 2.6%, respectively, reported IEA. But in 2015 the imbalance could change a little bit.
IEA has reduced its forecast of growth of oil export from non-OPEC member-states by 350,000 barrels a day – the first reduction since July 2014, when IEA released its forecast for year 2015, reported Bloomberg. The forecast of growth of North American production was reduced insignificantly by 95,000 barrels a day for Canada and 80,000 for US. As a result, IEA expects change of balance at the world market in the second half of the year, which will help to restore prices.
However, the demand remains low, despite the incentive of low prices. IEA remained the forecast of growth of world oil demand at 0.9 million barrels a day in 2015.
