Southern Gas Corridor project, implementation of which started on September 20, does not pose an immediate threat to the Russian gas deliveries to Europe, but it has risks in the mid-term, said Mikhail Krutikhin, partner and analyst of the RusEnergy consulting agency.
“There are no immediate risks for Russia in this project, because, first of all, gas deliveries from the Caspian region via this route will not begin now and even not in three years; secondly, Azerbaijan will supply no more than 10 billion cub.m. a year,” expert said.
However, gas deliveries via the Southern Gas Corridor could begin in the future, when other countries join this gas pipeline.
“In mid-term gas not only from Azerbaijan, but also from Iran through Turkey and from Turkmenistan as well as Iraqi Kurdistan, where volume of potential export exceeds 30 billion cub.m. a year, could be transported via this route. If other suppliers join this route, this will create a serious competition to the Russian gas deliveries,” Krutikhin added.
The expert added that the European consumers are interested in the Southern Gas Corridor, because it envisages a real diversification of sources of deliveries.
“This meets the European Union strategy for diversification of sources of deliveries, because what Gaspom offers is not diversification of sources, but only routes and this does not suit Europe,” Krutikhin said.
Although the Southern Gas Corridor was the competitor of the priority European project Nabucco and has actually given it up as a bad idea, when the consortium for development of the Azerbaijani gas condensate field Shah Deniz-2 has selected it, but in a certain sense it could pave the way for a partial implementation of Nabucco, forecasted Krutikhin.
“In order to implement Nabucco, we need to build several interconnectors: through Turkey to Bulgaria and Bulgaria already has connectors with the neighboring countries, so it will not be hard to connect the pipeline with Romania and further with Austria via Hungary. Under any other name Nabucco will exist and will compete with the Russian gas pipeline,” the expert concluded.
