In the current political and economic situation the Southern Gas Corridor is considered by the West as the “Road of Life,” which reminds of the icy road through the Ladoga to Leningrad during the World War II, said Ilham Shaban, Director of the Caspian Barrel Oil Studies Centre, in his interview to Novosti-Azerbaijan.
– Some media have recently written about reduction of gas production on the strategic Azerbaijani field Shah Deniz. What is the real reason? Is it seasonal?
Yes, in quarter 1, 2014 gas production on the field went down by 100 million cub.m. against the same period last year and totaled 2.32 billion cub.m. However, this is not connected with technological process of production or repair works on the production platform. The reason is that this winter was very mild and the consumption declined.
– What is happening with the trans-Anadolu project right now?
– Trans-Anadolu (TANAP) project is being implemented according to the schedule. In May 2014 the TANAP consortium selected Australian Worley Parsons Limited company to manage the gas pipeline engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) through the open international tender. The five-year-old contract envisages the following services: project management, including planning, design and engineering; concluding of contracts, procurements, control over the project and other works aimed at construction of pipeline and other objects, including compressor stations.
I would like to add that at present the US Bechtel company, which is the consultant of State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), the project operator, in TANAP, is also at the stage of finishing the engineering study of the pipeline jointly with its Turkish partner ENKA company. Construction of TANAP itself will start in quarter 1, 2015. The term of construction is 34 months.
– Do you think that some forces in the region would like to hinder the project implementation?
– Let’s look ten years back from now when Azerbaijan and its foreign partners started construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. Mass media brought up and discussed almost the same issues. However, the pipeline was put into operation in early June 2006 and it has shown that BTC serves not only the interests of one country and the West, but also the entire region. Oil of four Caspian basin states – Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia – is exported via the pipeline.
The situation is slightly different now: the political situation in the region and in the whole world is tenser. Thus, the economic projects have more political risks.
But I would not say that they are able to affect and even prejudice the project implementation.
The thing is that TANAP is the main link of the Southern Gas Corridor, which is going to supply gas from the alternative markets to the European Union (EU). In the current political situation the corridor is considered by the West as the “Road of Life,” which reminds of the icy road through Ladoga to Leningrad during the World War II.
Gas from the Caspian Sea or the Shah-Deniz field should be delivered to the EU markets without fail. Russia is also aware of that, but Gasprom company could separate politics from business. The company is well informed about possible gas deliveries from the Caspian Sea and potential markets in the coming 20 years. Therefore, I see no reasons for confrontation in the near future.
Development of the Caspian Sea fields without solving the Caspian Sea legal status is a political issue and clearly shows possibility of economic cooperation between the interested parties.
– Speaking about economic tendencies and change of political situation in the region, I would like to know your opinion on the possibility of transit of alternative gas to Ukraine through Turkey. Is it real and urgent right now?
– At present Turkey is not a transit country for the gas deliveries to Ukraine and it will not have such a possibility in the coming five years. As far as Azerbaijani gas is concerned, it will be delivered to the Southern Europe and right now we do not have infrastructure for its transportation to Ukraine. Let’s say Azerbaijani gas is pumped to Ukraine through interconnectors, then its volume will be no more than 1 billion cub.m., which will not make a big difference for this country. Ukraine’s demand in gas is 20 billion cub.m. Thus, Azerbaijani gas cannot be considered as an alternative source of gas for Ukraine.
When it comes to other sources of gas, with desire and available resources everything is possible.
Novosti-Azerbaijan
