Theglobal de-synchronization of economic growth today puts pressure on the oilmarket, according to the report prepared under the leadership of Citi’sCommodity Market Department in the EMEA region, Max Lighton.
In 2019, there will be an imbalance between supply and demand in the global oil market, as a result of which oil quotes will be in the corridor of $ 55-65 per barrel.
According to him, the demand for oil in emerging markets may be in a risk zone due to lower economic growth amid recent trade wars and weakening national currencies.
The optimistic scenario for oil-producing states implies an increase in the cost of oil next year to $ 80 per barrel. At the same time, American shale oil production may sharply intensify, which again will provoke a decline in oil prices to a level of $ 60 in 2021, the report says.
The negative scenario, the probability share of which is estimated at 30%, means that a collapse of oil prices in 2019 could happen to $ 40 per barrel. “A lot will depend on the actions of OPEC+, as well as how much shale oil the United States will be produced,” said Lighton. Recall immediately after the message that the participants in the OPEC+ deal in Vienna managed to agree on reducing oil production, quotations immediately added 5% – the price of Brent crude oil overcame the mark of $ 63 per barrel.